Bitcoin Rally Lacks Conviction as Glassnode Flags Overbought Conditions and Declining Trust

Bitcoin’s recent price rally may be running on thin ice, according to analytics firm Glassnode, which warns that the surge lacks broad-based conviction despite pushing the asset into overbought territory.

In its Weekly Market Pulse report dated Monday, 13 July 2026, Glassnode highlighted that Bitcoin’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) surged from 50.8 to 66.9—a 31.8% weekly increase—placing it near overbought levels. However, this advance coincided with a 21.5% drop in spot trading volume, which fell from $5.2 billion to $4.1 billion over the past week.

More concerning is the shift in market dynamics: the spot cumulative volume delta, which measures net aggressive buying versus selling, flipped from a positive $17.2 million to a negative $58.8 million. This indicates that aggressive sellers now outnumber aggressive buyers—even as prices climb.

“The advance has been driven by relatively thin liquidity rather than broad-based buying conviction,” Glassnode noted.

Bitcoin struggled to hold above $63,000 on Monday morning, dipping 1.4% in the past 24 hours. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits shifted from ‘bullish’ last week to ‘bearish’ within days, while overall chatter around BTC fell to ‘low’ from ‘normal’ levels.

The broader cryptocurrency market declined 1.1% in the same period, now valued at approximately $2.24 trillion. Among top assets, Ripple’s XRP led losses, dropping 1.5% to around $1.08. Retail sentiment for XRP plummeted from ‘extremely bullish’ to ‘bearish’ on Stocktwits, with discussion volume cooling to ‘normal’.

Meanwhile, several major altcoins outperformed Bitcoin. Solana (SOL) dipped just 0.2% to $76.33, Binance Coin (BNB) fell 0.8% to $569, Dogecoin (DOGE) lost 0.9% to $0.072, and Ethereum (ETH) declined 0.9% to $1,782.

Ethereum remained among the most discussed tickers on Stocktwits, with sentiment still in ‘bullish’ territory—though chatter decreased from ‘high’ to ‘normal’. Some traders warned ETH could fall to $1,500 if it breaks below $1,700, while others eyed a potential breakout above the $1,800 resistance tested over the weekend.

“As long as Ethereum holds above $1,750, I think a rally towards $2,000 could happen,” wrote crypto analyst Ted Pillow on Twitter, adding that holding above $1,700 is a “good sign.”

Leverage unwinding intensified across the market, with over $250 million in crypto positions liquidated in the past 24 hours—nearly $200 million of which were long positions.

Market participants are now watching MicroStrategy (MSTR), which sold more than 3,500 BTC last week, to see if the firm resumes accumulation or continues offloading. Additionally, upcoming U.S. inflation data—including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI)—could influence market direction later this week.

On the regulatory front, the stalled CLARITY Act is expected to return to Senate discussion as lawmakers resume sessions following recess, potentially shaping future crypto policy in the United States.